With Odessa bombarded and Ukrainian silos on the brink of saturation, the wheat market has been on high alert for a potential crash since early August. We posed the same ten questions to two veterans of the Black Sea region. While their verdicts differ, their conclusions remain aligned.
Anne Barrat - 25 September 2026
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Global wheat stocks appear to be comfortable. However, this is an illusion: the majority is held in China and India, while reserves in major exporting countries are at their lowest. Declining harvests, a paralyzed Black Sea, and soaring fertilizer prices are just a few factors that could converge in 2027, putting North African and Middle Eastern importing countries under significant pressure.
Michel J. F. Dubois - 25 September 2026
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With strikes on Black Sea ports, the Strait of Hormuz blocked since February, and a Super El Niño forecast for autumn, wheat has become more than ever an instrument of power and influence. While prices rose during the summer, they remain far from the peaks of 2022. Jérémy Denieulle, director of studies at the think tank Agriculture Stratégies, explains this paradox and identifies signals that could reignite the surge.
Anne Barrat - 24 September 2026
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Fertilizers, diesel, and gas: European plant sectors will continue to bear the costs of geopolitical tensions this winter. Patrice Geoffron, director of the Center for Geopolitics of Energy and Raw Materials, predicts a relaxation by 2027. However, there will be no return to the pre-crisis world: the situation in Hormuz has permanently altered the price of risk.
Anne Barrat - 4 September 2026
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