Brazilian agribusiness perspective 2026: From productive power to strategic maturity

Renato Seraphim

Specialist in Innovation and Technology in Agribusiness

Columnist for AgroPages

2026 as a strategic inflection point




When I observe Brazilian agribusiness approaching 2026, I do not see a sector in crisis. Instead, I see a sector at a historic crossroads. The central challenge has shifted from simply producing more to managing risks, complexity, and innovation in a professional and systemic way.




Agribusiness remains one of the strongest pillars of the Brazilian economy. Projections for the Gross Production Value (VBP) near R$ 1.6 trillion (1 US$ =R$5,4) confirm this strength. We produce at scale with high efficiency, maintaining our role as global protagonists in food, fiber, and renewable energy.




However, the upcoming 2026 harvest marks a definitive inflection point. Margins are tighter, costs are more volatile, the climate is increasingly unpredictable, and the regulatory environment has become more complex. The estimated agricultural GDP growth of around 1% does not signal weakness, but rather maturity. Future progress will depend less on sheer volume and much more on management excellence.




″In 2026, the winners will not be those who plant the most hectares, but those who make the best decisions per hectare″.




Below are my 10 key points to watch and recommended actions for 2026:







1. Production and Market: Volume no longer guarantees margin




The 2025/2026 harvest consolidates Brazil as the planet's premier agricultural powerhouse, but this productive success masks an extremely challenging international price environment. According to CONAB and USDA data from January 2026, we are facing a "high-cost, low-price harvest."




Brazil: Grain Production Projection 2025/2026

Total Estimate: 354.4 million tons

Planted Area: 82.3 million hectares




Crop



Estimated Production



Variation (vs 24/25)



Strategic Observation 2026




Soybeans



177.6 million t



+3.6%



Record area; Severe logistical bottleneck in   Paranaguá.




Corn



132.1 million t



-6.8%



Strategic reduction in second-crop area due to   weather (price risk).




Beef



Upward Cycle



---



Female retention reduces supply; High domestic   prices.




Historical Comparison: The "Scissors Effect"




To understand the risk, observe the average net profitability per hectare (Source: CNA/CEPEA):

2021/2022: R$ 2,800/ha (Record margins; management errors were forgiven).

2023/2024: R$ 1,100/ha (Drop in Chicago prices and high input costs).

2025/2026:* R$ 750/ha (Prices at cost level; record global supply).




Commodities are trading at their lowest real levels in the last 5 years due to oversupply from the US (incentivized by Trump) and Argentina, compounded by the "Brazil Cost": freight from Sorriso to Santos has risen 18% compared to 2024.




*1 US$ = R$5,4




2. Meat geopolitics: The "Chinese Addiction" and Brazilian political risk




In my strategic view, the beef scenario in 2026 is the most alarming example of our vulnerability. Although the arroba is currently valued (R$ 310 - R$ 340) due to the female retention cycle, ranchers face an international trap.




Chinese Taxation: China has raised import taxes on Brazilian meat. This is not merely trade; it is a geopolitical maneuver by Beijing to pressure the current Brazilian government.

Political Environment: It is my opinion that the maintenance of the current federal government in Brazil represents the most challenging scenario for the agrobusiness sector. Notably, the current administration acts against the sector—whether through speeches that antagonize us globally or through diplomatic inefficiency. This leadership vacuum leaves meat exporters hostage to Beijing, which uses surcharges to force down the price of our protein.




3. Trade geopolitics 2.0 (Trump vs. China)




The return of Donald Trump to the White House brought about the "Tariff Hike" of 2025. Recently, in October 2025, a truce was signed in which China committed to purchasing 25 million tons of American soybeans annually starting now (2026-2028). As a result, the premium for Brazilian soybeans may face significant pressure in the second half of 2026.




″Brazil should view this as an excellent opportunity and focus on value addition and traceability, selling not just 'commodities,' but 'audited sustainability' to escape the low-price war″.




4. Mercosur-European Union geopolitics: The "Green Seal"




The agreement has finally moved forward, but it comes with "automatic triggers." If exports of beef or sugar grow by more than 8% per year, Europe can impose safeguards.




″The 'dirty record' producer (those with environmental liabilities) is out of the European game. Traceability has shifted from being a competitive differentiator to a fundamental condition for existence.″




5. Crop input geopolitics (Russia and China)




China has suspended phosphate exports until August 2026 to ensure the stability of its domestic market. Additionally, instability in Venezuela and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to impact logistical costs and the global supply of fertilizers.




In Summary: IMF and World Bank projections for 2026 indicate that commodities are trading at their lowest real levels in the last five years. In my view, the Brazilian farmer is being "squeezed" by three primary forces:

Global oversupply and the Trump factor: Under strong incentives from the Trump administration, the U.S. and Argentina have achieved full harvests. The world is currently flooded with grain.

The exchange rate trap: A strong dollar increases the cost of everything we buy, such as inputs and freight. However, when it comes time to sell, the drop in Chicago prices (CBOT) cancels out any potential currency gains.

The meat "Addiction" and the Chinese challenge: This is a critical point in my analysis. While meat prices have risen due to the livestock cycle and cattle shortages, China is utilizing import taxes as a commercial weapon and is taxing our protein to force prices down. Ranchers are at the peak of the price cycle but with a "sword to their throat" held by this tax.




2026 SWOT Matrix: decision guide




The matrix below outlines the three main value chains, considering the Trump/China/Mercosur scenario:




Factor



Soybeans



Corn



Sugar Cane




Strengths



Scale efficiency and resilient Chinese demand.



Integration with animal protein and DDG.



Leadership in SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) and   E2G.




Weaknesses



Dependency on fertilizers (P and K) and road   logistics.



Increasingly risky planting window due to La Niña.



Costs for renewing cane fields and mechanization.




Opportunities



Carbon markets and premiums for traceability.



Exporting to new markets, such as Southeast Asia.



Mercosur-EU agreement opening premium sugar quotas.




Threats



US-China truce reducing Brazilian premiums.



Volatility of the second-crop (safrinha) and   freight costs.



Protectionism is disguised as environmental barriers   in Europe.




″Use Hedge as Insurance. In 2026, implementing a Hedge (price locks and put options) is as mandatory as putting diesel in the tractor. Given expensive credit due to high interest rates (Selic), producers must seek financing through capital markets (LCA, CRA) and Barter, moving away from traditional bank interest.″




6. The Political Scenario: The major obstacle




We cannot ignore the elephant in the room.




2026 marks the beginning of an election year. My personal opinion is clear: the maintenance of the current federal government represents the most challenging and risky scenario for our sector.




Brazilian agribusiness is resilient. However, facing climate adversities and market fluctuations is already a Herculean task that should not be aggravated by the need to fight against one’s own government.




The current administration has adopted stances that notably act against the sector, whether through global speeches that antagonize us, legal insecurity in the countryside, or inefficiency in opening new markets.




"Our calling is global trade, but the government prefers ideology over diplomacy. The result of this choice is our vulnerability to Chinese tariff retaliations and the growing protectionist barriers imposed by the European Union."




7. Climate: Nature remains the Chief Manager




Climate will once again be the decisive risk factor. With the probability of a weak and persistent La Niña, technical discipline is vital.




South: Severe risk of drought.

Center-West: Irregular rainfall affecting the corn planting window.

North/Northeast: Excessive rainfall hindering outbound logistics.




″Insurance is not a cost. In a scenario where commodity prices are on the 'floor,' a loss of 10 bags per hectare due to a lack of rain can result in the insolvency of the entire harvest.″




8. Tax reform: The ultimate challenge




2026 marks the official launch of the IBS and CBS. It is the year of the "Simulation."




Rates: Starting at 0.1% (IBS) and 0.9% (CBS), but with a profound impact on tax credit calculations.

Leasing: New criteria for rural leasing contracts require immediate legal review to avoid double taxation.

Barter: Each transaction must now be documented with absolute precision.




″In 2026, accounting adaptation is your greatest competitive differentiator. Professionalize your operations so you don't hand over to the government the margins you fought so hard to earn in the field."




9. The exchange ratio (BARTER) : The thermometer of your efficiency




The table below shows the evolution of the exchange ratio over the last 5 years. This is the heart of our guide. Notice that 2026 marks a new cycle of tightening margins.




Barter Analysis (2021 - 2026) 

Year



Soybeans (Bags/ton MAP)



Corn (Bags/ton Urea)



Market Scenario




2021



22.5



75.0



"Golden Margins" – Commodities on the   rise.




2022



38.2



125.0



Input Crisis (War in Ukraine).




2023



26.8



88.5



Cost normalization, Chicago prices drop.




2024



24.5



82.0



Opportunity window for Barter.




2025



27.2



92.5



Beginning of margin pressure and strong dollar.




2026*



31.5



105.0



The "Strategic Inflection Point" –   High costs and low premiums.




As we can see, in 2026, the producer requires more bags to purchase the same ton of fertilizer as they did in 2024. The five-year historical average for soybeans was 27.8 bags/ton of MAP; it has now reached 31.5. This represents a direct loss of purchasing power.




"In 2022, management errors were forgiven by a high market. In 2026, the market is unforgiving. High productivity without a Hedge and strict cost control is merely statistical vanity. If your soybean production cost is 48 bags/ha and the market pays 52, your margin for error is nearly zero. Protect yourself in the options market."




For the agronomist or consultant aiming to lead, the recommendation for clients must be:

Protect your production through a hedge on Crop Inputs (Margin Insurance) Do not "pray" for a better price. With the exchange ratio at 31.5 for soybeans and 105 for corn, profit is found in protection.




Cost Lock: If the exchange ratio for 2027 begins to drop toward 28 bags, lock in your fertilizer immediately.

Put Options: Purchase protection against sharp price drops caused by sudden geopolitical decisions from Trump.




″Logistical planning and rural insurance have shifted from being costs to becoming essential financial strategies.″




9. The social scenario: Human Capital, Succession, and New Leadership




The modern farm is a high-tech enterprise that no longer tolerates the "this is how it's always been done" amateurism. In 2026, operational efficiency depends less on "iron" (machinery) and more on "brains". The greatest bottleneck in agribusiness is not a lack of machines, but a shortage of minds prepared to manage complexity.




Professionalized Succession: 2026 marks the peak of the transition to the "digital native" generation. The primary challenge is behavioral rather than technological. Agronomists and consultants are taking on a new role as cultural mediators, bridging the wisdom and prudence of the founders with the agility and data-driven vision of the successors. Succession planning must be legal, fiscal, and, above all, emotional.

Labor Shortage and Retention: The countryside faces fierce competition from urban centers. To retain talent, producers must go beyond salary by offering a Career and Well-being Plan. Retention programs now include profit sharing and continuous professional development.

Training as an Investment, not a Cost: Operating autonomous harvesters or managing bio-factories requires high specialization. Investment in technical training and leadership is what ensures that purchased technology delivers the promised ROI.

Technology as a Talent Magnet: Young talent wants to work where there is innovation. Investing in connectivity, telemetry, and AI is also an HR strategy to attract the best operators, who seek efficiency and comfort in their work environment.




"The most modern tractor in the world generates no profit if operated by someone who is unmotivated or outdated. In 2026, the success of your rural business entity depends on the quality of the individuals behind it. Invest in succession to preserve your legacy and in training to guarantee the future."




10. Technology, Sustainability, and Legacy: Farm 5.0 as a Global Showcase




By 2026, technology has ceased to be a mere support tool and has become the foundation of our differentiation narrative. As I always emphasize artificial intelligence will not replace the agronomist, but the agronomist who masters AI will certainly replace the one who ignores it.




To compete on the global stage, we need three pillars: Scale, Efficiency, and Differentiation. In the first two, we are already unbeatable; now, our great legacy will be to consolidate Brazil as the most sustainable agricultural producer on the planet.




Predictive AI and Bio-efficiency: Advanced algorithms now anticipate pests and diseases before the first lesion appears, allowing for "surgical" intervention. Coupled with this, Precision Biologicals and the use of microorganisms to solubilize nutrients (such as phosphorus) reduce our chemical dependency and regenerate soil life. As Evaristo de Miranda advocates, biological balance is our greatest defense against global volatility.

Connectivity and Decarbonization: 5G in the field are not just about internet access; it is about real-time telemetry that reduces diesel consumption by up to 15%, cutting costs and emissions simultaneously.

Agribusiness as an Energy Powerhouse: Brazil leads the global transition with Second Generation Ethanol (E2G) and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). We do not just export grains; we export clean energy and solutions for the climate crisis.




Telling our story to the world




We must learn to tell our story with the same vigor as which we plant. Our sustainability is not a theoretical promise; it is a financial asset audited by technology. Digital Traceability and geomonitoring are not merely "European barriers″. They are documentary evidence that our soybeans and meat are the cleanest in the world.




The "Agro-Green" Asset: The carbon market in 2026 has matured. Producers utilizing ICLF (Integrated Crop-Livestock-Forestry) have transformed carbon sequestration into an "extra check" per bag, proving that sustainability is not philanthropy—it is profit and access to the most demanding markets.




"We have the best agriculture in the world, but we must be the best at telling that story. In 2026, technology is our 'notary office' for sustainability. Use data to prove you produce more with fewer resources. Your legacy is not just what you leave in the soil, but the story of green leadership that Brazil delivers to the world".







My alert: How to enter 2026 better prepared




To navigate safely and profitably through this transition year, consultants and producers must sustain their operations on three non-negotiable pillars:

Bulletproof Risk Management: Rural insurance and structured Hedging have ceased to be financial tools and have become survival items. Protect your margin before seeking higher productivity.

Extreme Operational Efficiency: Digitalization must be complete. The rational use of crop inputs, guided by data, is the only way to preserve cash flow in a low-price scenario.

Governance and Strategic Action: Seek specialized technical support to face the complexity of Tax Reform and the volatility of the political landscape. Do not try to cross this storm alone.




"In 2022, a rising market forgave bad management. In 2026, the market is merciless. High productivity without Hedging and strict cost control is merely statistical vanity. Either you protect yourself in the options market, or you will be the next one removed from the game".







Conclusion: Maturity or Exclusion




The year 2026 will not be remembered for growth records, but for a leap in strategic maturity. Brazilian agribusiness has already proven its unbeatable strength inside the gate; now, the challenge is to prove our competence in strategy, governance, and data intelligence.




The scenario is complex, and the government may not be the ally the sector deserves, but our capacity for adaptation is what brought us here.




Final Message

Those who master risk and anticipate the moves of the global chessboard will lead the next decade.

The farm of the future will be guided by data, AI, and biological efficiency. However, it will only prosper under the command of those who know how to read the political and economic landscape even before depositing the first seed in the soil.







Sources and References




Neves, Marcos Fava. "Perspectives for Agribusiness 2026." Doutor Agro.

Jank, Marcos. "Geopolitics and Foreign Trade: Brazil at the center of the world." Insper Agro Global.

Rodrigues, Roberto. "The role of Cooperativism in Food Security".

Miranda, Evaristo. "Sustainability and Preservation in the Field." Embrapa.

Seraphim, Renato. Interviews for the program "Hora do Agro" (Jovem Pan).

CONAB: Crop Survey (January 2026).

CEPEA-Esalq: Price and Agricultural Profitability Indices.

USDA: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE - Jan 2026).

CNA: Logistics and Production Cost Bulletin